The bull vs. bears markets ratio
Bull markets tend to outlast bear markets by a factor of four. But what are bull and bear markets?
What is a bull market?
Investors call a bull market a time of optimism when asset prices are going up ā like a strong bull charging ahead. šš
Economists define the bull market as a time when one of the major stock market indices (S&P 500, or similar) is gaining 20% or more over a prolonged time period.
During a bull market, investors around the world tend to buy more and also hold their investments longer āĀ as they are not rattled by downturns in the market. You should still stick to your investment plan at this time and think long-term. This is the best way to take advantage of a bull market.
What is a bear market?
A bear market is like a gloomy period when prices are falling, similar to a bear settling down for a nap. š»š
Economists define the bear market as a decline of 20% or more in one of the major stock market indices (S&P 500, or similar) over a prolonged time period.
On average, a bear market occurs every 3,5 years! Remember: the markets behave cyclically ā so it will be very likely that you have to endure more than one bear market in your life as an investor.
Continuing to invest (especially if you have set up a monthly plan) is a smart way to lower your average purchase price of investments ā as prices are cheaper during that time. By buying more for less money, you will increase the chances for bigger profits when markets turn around again.
What is the 4:1 ratio?
Bull markets tend to outlast bear markets by a factor of four. On average, bear markets have a relatively short duration of about 9,6 months, while bull markets stretch out over an average of 2,6 years.
This interesting tidbit highlights the long-lasting nature of bull markets.
As investors, we can take away that:
- the time to enjoy positive market trends and financial growth is longer on average
- bear markets (times when prices are down) are shorter than markets that allow us to grow our wealth
- patience & perseverance is everything when we find ourselves in the middle of a bear market
Carina WetzlhĆ¼tter
Carina makes technology understandable. As the former marketing lead of a complex software product, she joined Selma to help explain finance in a more human way. Winter being her favorite season, she loves āļø and šæ
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